Cameron unlikely to solve Tories’ Scottish conundrum
October 7, 2009 by David Torrance
A belated posting about my piece on the Conservatives and Scotland in yesterday’s Scotsman, not online in full so here it is:
CONSERVATIVE leaders always end up feeling frustrated by Scotland, perplexed that their warm words, tailor-made initiatives and endless visits do not produce the same political capital they do in England and, intriguingly given recent voting patterns, Wales.
Disraeli got so irritated by the ingratitude of North British electors he declared that the “Scotch shall have no favours from me until they return more Tory members to the House of Commons”. His successors – yes, even the much-maligned Margaret Thatcher – have managed to keep similar sentiments private.
David Cameron is but the latest in a long line of Tory Party chiefs to try and win over the Scots. In Manchester this week the charm offensive continues. Although the agenda boasts no more Scottish content than usual, a beefed-up media strategy aims to demonstrate that Scotland is never far from Dave’s thoughts.
But those thoughts are realistic. Cameron knows that any electoral progress in Scotland is bound to be modest, while unlike some of his predecessors he realizes that there’s no magic solution to his party’s performance in a Scottish context. His pitch in next year’s general election will be simplistic yet straightforward: it is a British general election to choose a British prime minister; in that context the SNP is irrelevant.
While the party’s poll lead over Labour in England and Wales fluctuates between seven and 15 points, in Scotland it is flat lining, although private polling suggests a vote share of more than 20 per cent in Scotland come polling day. Even so, as Saturday’s Scotsman speculated, the number of Scottish Tory MPs returned could as low as two – just enough to staff the Scotland Office with a Secretary of State and deputy.
Party strategists, of course, refuse to be gloomy, pointing to the recent Euro elections in which a Westminster constituency breakdown showed the Conservatives taking six seats. This is misleading, for not only was the turnout desultory, but the party’s vote share worse than in 2004; indeed it marked another reduction in vote share, as there has been at every election, UK, Scottish or European, since 1997.
All of David Cameron’s planning for Scotland should he form a government next June has, therefore, to take account of this unpalatable context. Despite offers to work with Alex Salmond, warm words about treating Scotland “with respect” and a promise to make UK ministers answerable to MSPs, a Cameron government will be on the defensive in Scotland almost from day one. There will not even be the luxury of a honeymoon.
The SNP and Labour, meanwhile, will zealously dust off all their 1980s battle cries. Cameron will constantly be reminded that he has “no mandate” to govern Scotland (despite the existence of a devolved parliament, which was supposed to bury that constitutionally illiterate complaint once and for all) while every careless remark and botched initiative will immediately be decried as “anti-Scottish”. Puerile, yes, but an inescapable fact of Scottish political life.
Cameron does have some plus points, relatively speaking. He is not, as Labour mischievously claim, “even more unpopular than Margaret Thatcher in Scotland”, although his party probably is. At UK level Cameron is undeniably an asset and although not wildly popular with Scots there’s no evidence that he’s deeply unpopular either. For a Tory leader in Scotland, that can only be a good thing.
Annabel Goldie will also provide a useful personality buffer in her capacity as leader of the Scottish Conservative Party. A million miles from Tory hate figures like Michael Forsyth, she even enjoys constructive relations with the SNP. This may blunt SNP attacks without eliminating them. Her speech at conference yesterday, which had unprecedented prominence, was assured, realistic and hit all the right notes with predominantly English delegates.
While Vince Cable’s recent prediction that a Tory victory would trigger a “constitutional crisis” in Scotland was overblown, there is also trouble brewing when it comes to constitutional reform. Historically, Scottish Conservatives have always been adept at practicing pragmatic Unionism, be that the creation of a Scottish Office or the steady transfer of more administrative powers from London to Edinburgh during the 20th century.
But of late that instinct seems to have deserted them. Instead of endorsing the recent recommendations of the Calman Commission on Devolution, which the party initially signed up to, the party is in little-publicised disarray: some MSPs reject the notion of more financial powers outright; others are lukewarm and only a few are genuinely enthusiastic.
When I asked a senior party figure which of Calman’s recommendations Cameron would implement on becoming prime minister, I was told “the stuff about mutual respect”. Conveniently, that doesn’t require any legislation, just warm words. David Cameron is good with warm words, but he isn’t that good. Cue inevitable accusations of backtracking and cries of “same old Tories”.
There is also the English dimension to consider. A recent survey of Tory candidates revealed a worrying indifference when asked about Scotland; a majority even said they wouldn’t lose any sleep over Scotland leaving the Union. Indeed, scratch a Tory delegate at this week’s conference and the result isn’t exactly positive. Cameron, therefore, will not only have to keep a close eye on little Englander backbenchers, but also his party’s grassroots.
Apparently Cameron likes to see himself as a modern Harold Macmillan, while comparisons with his Old Etonian predecessor, Sir Alec Douglas-Home, are a favourite of the commentariat. There is a possibility that he could instead become another Edward Heath. Both were reforming Young Turks who promised an end to the old politics; both were much exercised by the Scottish question, Heath with his much-vaunted “Declaration of Perth”.
In government from 1970-74, however, Heath reneged on his pledge to devolve power to Scotland and his government was destroyed by events, largely economic, but also of its leader’s own making. Assuming the current recession continues Cameron too could be undone by events. Scotland, quite naturally, would slip down his list of political priorities.
Thursday, the last day of conference and the date for Cameron’s keynote speech, is also “Great Britain day”, when the party’s Shadow Scottish, Welsh and Northern Ireland Secretaries will talk about “building a stronger
union and a greater Britain”. During visits to Scotland Mrs Thatcher was fond of quoting Disraeli’s dictum that the Tory Party is a “national party or it is nothing”. For obvious reasons it’s an aphorism unlikely to be adopted by Dizzy’s 21st-century successor.
DAVID TORRANCE
ENDS
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“David Cameron is but the latest in a long line of Tory Party chiefs to try and win over the Scots. In Manchester this week the charm offensive continues.” When did the border move to Watford?